Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis
Summary
Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana in 30 locations across Western Europe, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of ~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary adaptation. We id
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# Rapid adaptation and extinction in synchronized outdoor evolution experiments of Arabidopsis
*Published: 2026 Mar 26*
Climate change forces species to adapt rapidly to avoid extinction. To directly
observe rapid adaptation and extinction, we conducted synchronized evolution
experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana in 30 locations across Western Europe, the
Mediterranean, the Levant, and North America. Whole-genome pooled sequencing of
~70,000 surviving plants revealed repeatable allele frequency shifts in similar
climates but divergent shifts across contrasting ones, indicating evolutionary
adaptation. We identified genetic variants linked to climate adaptation,
including genes involved in processes ranging from thermal-stress sensing to
spring-flowering timing. Evolutionary trends were often predictable, but
variable, across environments. In warmer climates, evolutionary predictability
correlated with population survival over 5 years, whereas erratic changes
preceded extinction. These results show that rapid climate adaptation is
possible, but understanding its limits will be crucial for biodiversity
forecasting.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adz0777