Rapid evolution predicts demographic recovery after extreme drought
Summary
Populations that are declining as a result of climate change may need to evolve to persist. Although evolutionary rescue has been demonstrated in theory and in the laboratory, its relevance to natural populations facing climate change remains unknown. Here we link rapid evolution and population dynamics in scarlet monkeyflower, Mimulus cardinalis, during exceptional drought. We leverage whole-genome sequencing across 55 populations to identify climate-associated loci. Simultaneously we tra
Content
# Rapid evolution predicts demographic recovery after extreme drought
*Published: 2026 Mar 12*
Populations that are declining as a result of climate change may need to evolve
to persist. Although evolutionary rescue has been demonstrated in theory and in
the laboratory, its relevance to natural populations facing climate change
remains unknown. Here we link rapid evolution and population dynamics in scarlet
monkeyflower, Mimulus cardinalis, during exceptional drought. We leverage
whole-genome sequencing across 55 populations to identify climate-associated
loci. Simultaneously we track demography and allele frequency change throughout
the drought. We establish range-wide population decline during the drought,
geographically variable rapid evolution, and variable population recovery that
is predictable by standing genetic variation in, and rapid evolution at,
climate-associated loci. These findings demonstrate the possibility of
evolutionary rescue in the wild, showing that genetic variation at adaptive, but
not neutral, loci predicts population recovery.
DOI: 10.1126/science.adu0995